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Bitcoin Analysis: Is Bitcoin still going down or has it bottomed out?

Bitcoin Analysis: Is Bitcoin still going down or has it bottomed out?
Written by insideindyhomes

Bitcoin (BTC): Golden Pocket processed at $26,170

BTC rate: $29,032 (previous day: $29,260)

Short-term resistances/goals: $29,764/$30,064, $30,612, $32,205, $33,097, $33,714, $34,748, $35,464, $36,587, $37,452, $38,250, $39,003/$39,322, $39,854, $38,41,48,419,48,419,48,419

Short-term supports: $28,810, $27,696, $26,170, $25,352, $23,887, $21,892, $19,884

Reasons for the ongoing course caprioles at Bitcoin

  • The Bitcoin price can gradually recover after falling back to USD 25,352 and is valued at around USD 29,000 at the time of writing this article.
  • Once again, a mix of persistent price weakness in the US technology index Nasdaq paired with the strength of the US dollar index (DXY) caused selling pressure on the crypto market.
  • Furthermore, the massive sell-off in the crypto ecosystem Terra with the associated cryptocurrencies Terra (LUNA) and TerraUSD (UST) caused panic among investors. In the short term, even the largest stablecoin, Tether (USDT), lost its peg to the US dollar, temporarily slipping to $0.95, adding to investor concerns about the general safety of stablecoins.

Reasons for Bitcoin bottoming

  • The fact that the BTC price has worked through the overriding “Golden Pocket” at USD 26,170 and, despite slightly undershooting on an hourly basis, was able to close well above this very strong support mark, at least indicates a temporary bottoming out.
  • The fact that Bitcoin initially turned north at this price level should not come as a surprise. This strong support level has also been repeatedly discussed in the last bitcoin course analyses.
  • Another factor for the recovery in the last few hours of trading can be found in the clearly oversold prices of all stock indices. All indicators in the daily and weekly charts indicate at least a temporary technical recovery movement.
  • The situation is similar when looking at the technical indicators for Bitcoin itself. Here, too, the RSI indicator shows an oversold status in the daily and weekly chart.
  • Since the Fear and Greed Index also indicates extreme fear among investors with a value of 12, the probability of a recovery rally also increases.

Bullish Scenario (BTC)

  • After a price slide to a new 52-week low at USD 25,352 early Thursday morning, the Bitcoin price turned significantly north in the morning and is currently trying to target the psychological price mark of USD 30,000.
  • If the resistance area between USD 29,764 and USD 30,064 per hour is recaptured, the focus should be on USD 30,612. This would also overcome the EMA50 (orange) and the supertrend, which could spark further price potential.
  • Already at USD 30,612 there is another strong hurdle for the bull camp with the cross resistance from the 23 Fibonacci retracement, upper Bollinger band and purple downward trend line.
  • If Bitcoin breaks through this resist without any significant setbacks, the next target price will be activated in the USD 32,205 area. A direct price jump back to the EMA200 (blue) in the hourly chart at USD 33,097 would also be conceivable. In the short term, this area represents the maximum upside target for the next 48 hours of trading.
  • If, contrary to expectations, this price level is also recaptured in the long term, the two horizontal resistance marks at USD 33,714 and USD 34,748 will come into focus as target marks.

Is the worst over now?

  • If these resistance levels are recaptured in the coming days, a subsequent increase up to the horizontal resistance at USD 35,464 is conceivable. A price bounce is to be expected here on the first attempt.
  • If the bulls can also dynamically recapture this resist level, a march towards the upper edge of the green resistance zone at USD 36,587 should be planned. This also increases the probability of a retest of the tear-off edge in the area of ​​USD 37,452. Here again, increased profit-taking is to be expected.
  • Only when this resist area is also skipped by the hourly closing price does the focus shift to the next relevant price target at USD 39,322. In addition to the 61 Fibonacci retracement and the red overriding downward trend line, there is also a zone that has been heavily contested in the past.
  • Between USD 39,003 and USD 40,019 it should therefore become increasingly difficult for the bulls to develop further upside potential.
  • A dynamic breakout back above USD 40,019 is not to be expected in the short term. A spike up to the maximum bullish price target at USD 40,851 would be possible. It still seems unlikely that the bull camp will be able to build up enough purchasing power in the current market situation to recapture this area in the long term.

Bearish Scenario (BTC)

  • The sell-side hit the key overarching price target at $26,170 in the early hours of the morning. Despite a slight undershoot to just over USD 25,000, the bears increasingly liquidated their short positions here.
  • However, the current technical counter-movement should not be overestimated for the time being. While the oversold status in the larger timeframes suggests an imminent price recovery, the bears remain firmly in control.
  • Already in the USD 30,000 range, new short positions should be opened again.
  • As already mentioned in the last price analysis, a new wave of sell-offs must be expected at any time if the BTC price falls below USD 37,452.
  • If Bitcoin slips back below the USD 28,810 mark in the next few trading hours, a relapse to USD 27,696 is likely. If possible, this support should not be fallen below in order to prevent a retest of USD 26,170.

Sale not over yet

  • If the bulls also fail to stabilize the BTC price in this area and Bitcoin falls below this support level at the hourly closing price, a renewed start of the daily low at USD 25,352 can be expected.
  • If all attempts to stabilize fail and Bitcoin marks a new low, further horizontal support from the daily chart at USD 23,887 and USD 21,892 will come into the eyes of investors as target marks.
  • These supports represent the last possible reversal zones on the way to the psychological $20,000 mark.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.

The chart images were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.96.

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